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Posted on August 1, 2010 by Anthony Watts

 

Guest post By Girma Orssengo, MASc, PhD

 

Comparison of the claims by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of 1) “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely” man made, and 2) “For the next two decades a warming rate of 0.2 deg C per decade is projected” are shown in this article not to be supported by the observed data, thus disproving IPCC’s theory of man made global warming.

 

FIRST IPCC CLAIM

 

In its Fourth Assessment Report of 2007, IPCC’s claim regarding global warming was the following [1]:

 

Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

 

Let us verify this claim using the observed data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia [2]. In this claim, “mid-20th century” means year 1950. As a result, according to the IPCC, global warming since 1950 is mostly man made.

 

To verify the claim that global warming since 1950 is mostly man made, we may compare the global warming rate in degree centigrade (deg C) per decade in one period before 1950 to that of a second period after 1950 to determine the effect of the increased human emission of CO2. To be able to do this, we need to identify these two periods, which may be established from the Global Mean Temperature Anomaly (GMTA) data of the CRU shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Annual surface Global Mean Temperature Anomaly in degree centigrade from year 1880 to 2009 from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia [2."

In Figure 1, the GMTA could be visualized as the sum of a Linear GMTA that has an overall warming rate of 0.6 deg C per century and an Oscillating GMTA  that oscillates relative to this overall linear warming trend line. This Oscillating GMTA indicates the relative warming and cooling phases of the globe.

 

As our objective is to verify the claim that global warming since 1950 is man made, we need to identify two global warming phases before and after 1950. To clearly see the global warming and cooling phases, we plot just the Oscillating GMTA, which is the GMTA relative to the overall linear warming trend line shown in Figure 1. This can be done by using an online software at www.woodfortrees.org by rotating the overall linear warming trend line to become horizontal by using a detrend value of 0.775 so that the Oscillating GMTA has neither overall warming nor cooling trend. The noise from the Oscillating GMTA is then removed by taking five-years averages (compress = 60 months) of the GMTA. The result thus obtained is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2 shows the following periods for relative global cooling and warming phases:

 

  1. 30-years of global cooling from 1880 to 1910

  2. 30-years of global warming from 1910 to 1940

  3. 30-years of global cooling from 1940 to 1970

  4. 30-years of global warming from 1970 to 2000

 

If this pattern that was valid for 120 years is assumed to be valid for the next 20 years, it is reasonable to predict:

 

  1. 30-years of global cooling from 2000 to 2030

 

Figure 2 provides the two global warming phases before and after 1950 that we seek to compare. The period before 1950 is the 30-years global warming period from 1910 to 1940, and the period after 1950 is the 30-years global warming period from 1970 to 2000.

 

Figure 2 also provides the important result that the years 1880, 1910, 1940, 1970, 2000, 2030 etc are GMTA trend turning points, so meaningful GMTA trends can be calculated only between these successive GMTA turning point years, which justifies the calculation of a GMTA trend starting from year 2000 provided latter in this article.

 

Once the two global warming periods before and after mid-20th century are identified, their rate of global warming can be determined from the GMTA trends for the two periods shown in Figure 3.

According to the data of the CRU shown in Figure 3, for the 30-years period from 1910 to 1940, the GMTA increased by an average of 0.45 deg C (3 decade x 0.15 deg C per decade). After 60 years of human emission of CO2, for the same 30-years period, from 1970 to 2000, the GMTA increased by an average of nearly the same 0.48 deg C (3 decade x 0.16 deg C per decade). That is, the effect of 60 years of human emission of CO2 on change in global mean temperature was nearly nil, which disproves IPCC’s theory of man made global warming

Read the rest of this proof at  wattsupwiththat.com

A primer for disproving IPCC’s theory of man made global warming using observed temperature data