Debunking the Climate Scam
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5000 Years Of Climate Change From Greenland Ice Cores
Fig 2 (lower) of Humlum et al 2012 showing that atmospheric CO2 concentrations lag behind global temperature variations by about a year. Climate Change is not Man-
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In August this year a key paper became available on the Web. The paper, by Humlum,
Stordahl and Solheim, has been accepted for publication by the peer- They show that atmospheric CO2 consistently LAGS ocean temperature. Their data sources are impeccable and in the public domain. What they did was carry out the sort of statistical analysis which should have been done by the IPCC 30 years ago. This is a very important paper because it constitutes the first direct experimental refutation of the theory that increased atmospheric CO2 from industrial activity is the cause of increased global average temperatures. The lag between them indicates this cannot be the case; an effect cannot precede its cause. |
Highlights |
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What are the implications? The time scale here ranges from months to decades. It has been known for some time
that ice- The AGW theory has been looking rather flaky for some time. It is well known that the temperature of lower atmosphere is controlled by convection and hence by the thermodynamic properties of gasses, not by radiation which only becomes important at the "top of the atmosphere" (i.e. above the tropopause) where water vapour concentrations become very small. The lower atmosphere is already opaque to infrared and adding further CO2 makes little difference. This theory is confirmed by observation thousands of times a day when met balloons measure the "adiabatic lapse rate", the rate at which temperature falls off with height. Furthermore the numerical "climate models" (OAGCMs) have never been able to predict the observed geographical distribution of temperature variations accurately (see here) and they have also failed to predict the plateau in global temperature of the last decade which has occurred despite continued increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration. This paper is, or should be, the final nail in the coffin of the absurdly simplistic AGW theory. |
What alternatives are there? A close association between CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and global temperature
has long been apparent. It is observed in ice- Explanation (a) was first proposed by the Swedish chemist Arrhenius who was aware that CO2 was a strong absorber of infrared radiation. Unfortunately, at this early stage, Arrhenius did not know about convective cooling and the "adiabatic lapse rate". These are not mentioned in his 1896 paper. Explanation (b) fits the one year lag of the Humlum et al observations and also explains
the multi- The alarmist view that observations of the steadily increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations of the 20th century are due entirely to industrialization is not supported by the analysis of Humlum et al. Instead it seems more likely that it is due to the upwelling of deep ocean water masses. This may be questioned by oceanographers since there is no smoking gun. However degassing of CO2 by upwelling water is impossible to measure because of the abundance of respiring plankton in such places. Oceanographers naively assume that the oceans are always in steady state and completely ignore major forcing due to hydrothermal vents and submarine volcanoes. This idea that variations in climate can be explained in terms of ocean instabilities
is not new. The effects of the ocean instability in the Equatorial Pacific, El Niño,
have been known for some time. The idea that other random or quasi- |
Reference Humlum, Ole, Stordahl, Kjell, Solheim, Jan- |
CO2 lags temperature
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