The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics - Volume 80, May 2012, Pages
267–284, DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2012.02.008
Relations between the length of a sunspot cycle and the average temperature in the
same and the next cycle are calculated for a number of meteorological stations in
Norway and in the North Atlantic region. No significant trend is found between the
length of a cycle and the average temperature in the same cycle, but a significant
negative trend is found between the length of a cycle and the temperature in the
next cycle. This provides a tool to predict an average temperature decrease of at
least View the MathML source1.0°C from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 for the stations
and areas analyzed. We find for the Norwegian local stations investigated that 25–56%
of the temperature increase the last 150 years may be attributed to the Sun. For
3 North Atlantic stations we get 63–72% solar contribution. This points to the Atlantic
currents as reinforcing a solar signal.
► A longer solar cycle predicts lower temperatures during the next cycle.
► A 1 °C or more temperature drop is predicted 2009–2020 for certain locations.
► Solar activity may have contributed 40% or more to the last century temperature
► A lag of 11 years gives maximum correlation between solar cycle length and temperature.