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Little Known Climate facts from the IPCC

 Warming; hurricanes; storms; sea level rise; floods; droughts; predictions


1. Earth only warmed  0.78 degree C up to 2012.

“Using Had-CRUT4 and its uncertainty estimates, the warming from 1850–1900 to 1986–2005 (reference period for the modelling chapters and Annex I) is 0.61 [0.55 to 0.67]  C (90% confidence interval), and the warming from 1850–1900 to 2003–2012 (the most recent decade) is 0.78 [0.72 to 0.85]  C (Supplementary Material 2.SM.4.3.3).”

Pg. 209 of  https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_final.pdf


2. We do not have enough data to say that hurricanes have increased.

“Confidence remains low for long-term (centennial) changes in tropical cyclone activity, after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities.”

pg 178 of  https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_final.pdf


3.  We do not have enough data to say that storms have increased.

 “Confidence in large-scale trends in storminess or storminess proxies over the last century is low owing to inconsistencies between studies or lack of long-term data in some parts of the world (particularly in the SH). {2.6.4}”

pg 178 of  https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_final.pdf


4.  There is no evidence that normal sea level increase has accelerated.

(Note that sea levels have been rising since the end of the last ice age - the issue is whether it is rising faster.)

“When a 60-year oscillation is modeled along with an acceleration term, the estimated acceleration in GMSL since 1900 ranges from:  0.000 [–0.002 to 0.002] mm yr–2 in the Ray and Douglas (2011) record, 0.013 [0.007 to 0.019] mm yr–2 in the Jevrejeva et al. (2008) record, and 0.012 [0.009 to 0.015] mm yr–2 in the Church and White (2011) record. Thus, while there is more disagreement on the value of a 20th century acceleration in GMSL when accounting for multi-decadal fluctuations, two out of three records still indicate a significant positive value. The trend in GMSL observed since 1993, however, is not significantly larger than the estimate of 18-year trends in previous decades (e.g., 1920–1950). “

Page 306 of  https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_final.pdf


5. There is no evidence that floods have increased

 “AR4 WGI Chapter 3 (Trenberth et al., 2007) did not assess changes in floods but AR4 WGII concluded that there was not a general global trend in the incidence of floods (Kundzewicz et al., 2007). SREX went further to suggest that there was low agreement and thus low confidence at the global scale regarding changes in the magnitude or frequency of floods or even the sign of changes.”

pg 230 of https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_final.pdf


6. There is no evidence that droughts have increased

 “Confidence is low for a global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the middle of the 20th century, owing to lack of direct observations, methodological uncertainties and geographical inconsistencies in the trends.”

pg 178 of  https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_final.pdf


7. Prediction of future climate is not possible.

“The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.” https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WGI_TAR_full_report.pdf   (IPCC third Assessment Report (2001) Section 14.2.2.2, page 774)   

End of page 1

Additional Facts from NASA & :  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

   

1.  Man emits about 6% of total emissions.

 Add the numbers on this NASA diagram: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/CarbonCycle/page1.php

2. CO2 causes only about 26-32% of the greenhouse effect. H2O causes 60-75%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect#Greenhouse_gases

Wikipedia’s source:

Table 3 of:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society  Vol. 78, No. 2, February 1997 -

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477%281997%29078%3C0197%3AEAGMEB%3E2.0.CO%3B2


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The above was written by DebunkingClimate.com but it relied on several sources for its information including the below


 http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/coverage-of-extreme-events-in-ipcc-ar5.html  (Bold added)


Coverage of Extreme Events in the IPCC AR5

I [Roger Pielke, Jr.] had been scheduled to testify before the House Science Committee next week in a hearing on extreme events, but the gong show in Washington has put that off.


In the process of updating Senate testimony given back in July (here in PDF) I did compile some key statements from the IPCC AR5 WGI Chapter 2 on extremes.  (AR5-WG1)


Here are a few:

“Overall, the most robust global changes in climate extremes are seen in measures of daily temperature, including to some extent, heat waves. Precipitation extremes also appear to be increasing, but there is large spatial variability"


"There is limited evidence of changes in extremes associated with other climate variables since the mid-20th century”


“Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century … No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin”


“In summary, there continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale”


“In summary, there is low confidence in observed trends in small-scale severe weather phenomena such as hail and thunderstorms because of historical data inhomogeneities and inadequacies in monitoring systems”


“In summary, the current assessment concludes that there is not enough evidence at present to suggest more than low confidence in a global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the middle of the 20th century due to lack of direct observations, geographical inconsistencies in the trends, and dependencies of inferred trends on the index choice. Based on updated studies, AR4 conclusions regarding global increasing trends in drought since the 1970s were probably overstated. However, it is likely that the frequency and intensity of drought has increased in the Mediterranean and West Africa and decreased in central North America and north-west Australia since 1950”


   “In summary, confidence in large scale changes in the intensity of extreme extratropical cyclones since 1900 is low


There is really not much more to be said here -- the data says what it says, and what it says is so unavoidably obvious that the IPCC has recognized it in its consensus


From:: http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/coverage-of-extreme-events-in-ipcc-ar5.html  (Bold added)


Also see: https://fabiusmaximus.com/2013/10/04/extreme-weather-ipc-56243/