Debunking the Climate Scam
Billions of Dollars -
Greedy Green Corporations -
No Warming For Two decades -
Bought and Paid For Organizations
5000 Years Of Climate Change From Greenland Ice Cores
Philip Mote and the Claim of Northwest Snowpack Decline
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SNOWPACK – THE REAL STORY (Bold added by SustainableOregon)
By George Taylor, CCM
A few years ago, several papers by scientists at the University of Washington (Mote, 2003; Mote, et al, 2004; Mote, et al, 2005) suggested that snowpack in the Pacific Northwest was declining due to global warming.
The Mote papers included the statement:
"A study of springtime mountain snowpack in the Pacific Northwest showed widespread declines in snowpack since 1950 at most locations with largest declines at lower elevations indicating temperature effects."
This author responded with an article discussing Northwest snow trends:
Included was the following statement:
“Note the starting point for this analysis; the late 1940s-
They did. Period-
“The use of snowpack trends from 1950 through current suggests a much different (steeper) trend than if period of record measurements are used. Granted, there exist relatively few stations that extend back prior to 1940, but those stations whose records are available make it clear than monotonic decreases in snow pack do not occur through the entire period of record.
“Based on a limited analysis, there are indications that precipitation is a much more significant influence on snow pack than is temperature.”
Among the charts shown in the article were the following. Each chart shows the 1950-
Nonetheless, the idea that snows were decreasing due to global warming, and would likely keep doing so, became a common and popular one in the Northwest. Seattle’s mayor, Oregon’s Governor, and other public officials rushed to include this “fact” in their policy statements. For example, the Report to the Governor (of Oregon) from the Governor’s Advisory Group on Global Warming (December 2004) stated:
“Between 1950 and 2000, the April 1 snowpack declined. In the Cascades, the cumulative
downward trend in snow-
However, in 2007 the “snow is going away” idea began to crumble. Washington associate
state climatologist Mark Albright confirmed that there was no significant long-
According to the Times, “Maybe the snow in the Cascade Mountains isn't in such immediate peril from global warming after all.”
“Despite previous studies suggesting a warmer climate is already taking a bite out
of Washington's snowpack, there's no clear evidence that human-
It is comforting that use of appropriate data records has dispelled some “bad science” conclusions. One hopes that policymakers will recognize this and modify their policies accordingly.
Mote, P. W., 2003. Trends in Temperature and Precipitation in the Pacific Northwest
During the Twentieth Century. Northwest science, 77, 271-
Mote, P. W., M. Clark, and A. F. Hamlet, 2004. Variability and Trends in Mountain Snowpack in Western North America. 15th symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, Seattle, Washington.
Mote, P. W., A.F. Hamlet, M.P. Clark and D.P. Lettenemier, 2005. Declining Mountain
Snowpack in Western North America. Bull. Amer. Meteo. Soc., 86, 39-
Phil Mote’s Alarming Climate Prediction Graph
Ability to predict is a key feature of a scientific theory. Here is one prediction
of future Northwest climate that Phil Mote included in his paper How and Why is Northwest
Climate Changing? Published in Climate Change, Carbon, and Forestry in Northwestern
North America: Proceedings of a Workshop, November 14 -
Mote's Original Alarming Graph
notice that all of the dramatic rise is a prediction
Was Scientific Dissent Being Quashed?
Philip Mote Stripped associate state climatologist Mark Albright of His Title
Thursday, March 15, 2007
How one number touched off big climate-
The number is eye-
The snowpack in the Cascades, it was said, shrank by 50 percent in the last half-
That statistic has been repeated in a government report, on environmental-
Here's the problem: The number is dead wrong.
The debunking of this statistic, and the question of just how much the state's snowpack shrank, is stirring up a heated debate among the region's climate scientists.
On Monday, it escalated further when University of Washington researcher and State Climatologist Philip Mote stripped a colleague of his title as associate state climatologist, triggering concerns that scientific dissent is being quashed. Losing the title doesn't affect the man's employment at the UW. read the whole story at : http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2003618979_warming15m.html
UW study examines decline of snowpack
By Warren Cornwall, Seattle Times environment reporter
Maybe the snow in the Cascade Mountains isn't in such immediate peril from global warming after all.
Despite previous studies suggesting a warmer climate is already taking a bite out
of Washington's snowpack, there's no clear evidence that human-
read the whole story at : http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008094636_climate06m.html
Mote’s View of Dissent
"There is a valued and much-
Mote, whose Ph.D. is from the University of Washington, surmises that Taylor is guilty of looking only at data that support his views, while discarding the rest. "You can only come to that conclusion if you handpick the climate records," Mote says. Willamette Week, August 24th, 2005
Bob H said
July 21, 2009 at 4:27 pm
Temperature records also seem to be available.
Detailed data for each of the snowpack stations can be found at ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/data/snow/snow_course/wasnow.txt
The lat/long coordinates for each station can be found in ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/data/snow/snow_course/listwa.txt
And finally the data field definitions are found in ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/data/snow/snow_course/README.txt
Air temperatures are by station, rather than combined, but are located at http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/temperature-
Maximum winter snowpack in the Snake River watershed has exhibited no trend upward or downward over the last 75 years.
Since 1918 snowpack has been measured at “snotel” locations in the Snake River watershed, which includes most of Idaho and portions of Oregon and Nevada. The snowpack has been measured in snow water equivalents (SWE) at over 700 snotel locations at monthly intervals during winter. Read the whole article
No Trend In Idaho Snowpack Over the Last 75 Years
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