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Briffa et al (1998) raw data?

Plot of below data: from://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/vedhaeftninger/osborn99.jpg

 

9154709.txt

From: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>

To: mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,imacadam@xxxxxxxxx.xxx

Subject: Briffa et al. series for IPCC figure

Date: Tue, 05 Oct 1999 16:18:29 +0100

Cc: k.briffa@uea,p.jones@uea

 

Dear Mike and Ian

 

Keith has asked me to send you a timeseries for the IPCC multi-proxy

reconstruction figure, to replace the one you currently have. The data are

attached to this e-mail. They go from 1402 to 1995, although we usually

stop the series in 1960 because of the recent non-temperature signal that

is superimposed on the tree-ring data that we use. I haven't put a 40-yr

smoothing through them - I thought it best if you were to do this to ensure

the same filter was used for all curves.

 

The raw data are the same as used in Briffa et al. (1998), the Nature paper

that I think you have the reference for already. They are analysed in a

different way, to retain the low-frequency variations. In this sense, it

is one-step removed from Briffa et al. (1998). It is not two-steps removed

from Briffa et al. (1998), since the new series is simply a *replacement*

for the one that you have been using, rather than being one-step further.

 

A new manuscript is in preparation describing this alternative analysis

method, the calibration of the resulting series, and their comparison with

other reconstructions. We are consdering submitting this manuscript to J.

Geophys. Res. when it is ready, but for now it is best cited as:

Briffa KR, Osborn TJ, Schweingruber FH, Harris IC and Jones PD (1999)

Extracting low-frequency temperature variations from a northern tree-ring

density network. In preparation.

Keith will be sending you a copy of the manuscript when it is nearer to

completion.

 

I have also attached a PS file showing the original Briffa et al. (1998)

curve, with annotation of cold years associated with known volcanic

eruptions. Overlain on this, you will see a green curve. This is the new

series with a 40-yr filter through it. This is just so that you can see

what it should look like (***ignore the temperature scale on this

figure***, since the baseline is non-standard).

 

With regard to the baseline, the data I've sent are calibrated over the

period 1881-1960 against the instrumental Apr-Sep tempratures averaged over

all land grid boxes with observed data that are north of 20N. As such, the

mean of our reconstruction over 1881-1960 matches the mean of the observed

target series over the same period. Since the observed series consists of

degrees C anomalies wrt to 1961-90, we say that the reconstructed series

also represents degrees C anomalies wrt to 1961-90. One could, of course,

shift the mean of our reconstruction so that it matched the observed series

over a different period - say 1931-60 - but I don't see that this improves

things. Indeed, if the non-temperature signal that causes the decline in

tree-ring density begins before 1960, then a short 1931-60 period might

yield a more biased result than using a longer 1881-1960 period.

 

If you have any queries regarding this replacement data, then please e-mail

me and/or Keith.

 

Best regards

 

Tim

 

Calibrated against observed Apr-Sep temperature over 1881-1960

averaged over all land grid boxes north of 20N

 

 

Year Reconstructed temperature anomaly (degrees C wrt 1961-90)

1402 -0.283

1403 -0.334

1404 -0.286

1405 -0.350

1406 -0.152

1407 -0.124

1408 -0.220

1409 -0.175

1410 -0.100

1411 -0.129

1412 -0.226

1413 -0.115

1414 -0.386

1415 -0.319

1416 -0.277

1417 -0.136

1418 -0.172

1419 -0.294

1420 -0.280

1421 -0.335

1422 -0.406

1423 -0.312

1424 -0.207

1425 -0.136

1426 -0.354

1427 -0.222

1428 -0.305

1429 -0.322

1430 -0.282

1431 -0.143

1432 -0.212

1433 -0.234

1434 -0.076

1435 -0.309

1436 -0.411

1437 -0.122

1438 -0.272

1439 -0.159

1440 -0.330

1441 -0.160

1442 -0.105

1443 -0.080

1444 -0.308

1445 -0.138

1446 -0.317

1447 -0.270

1448 -0.301

1449 -0.357

1450 -0.137

1451 -0.183

1452 -0.207

1453 -0.485

1454 -0.265

1455 -0.358

1456 -0.241

1457 -0.199

1458 -0.366

1459 -0.397

1460 -0.252

1461 -0.230

1462 -0.252

1463 -0.209

1464 -0.174

1465 -0.174

1466 -0.280

1467 -0.256

1468 -0.256

1469 -0.222

1470 -0.237

1471 -0.094

1472 -0.122

1473 -0.056

1474 -0.320

1475 -0.376

1476 -0.133

1477 -0.075

1478 0.037

1479 -0.161

1480 -0.379

1481 -0.513

1482 -0.286

1483 -0.354

1484 -0.327

1485 -0.208

1486 -0.125

1487 -0.380

1488 -0.193

1489 -0.245

1490 -0.466

1491 -0.244

1492 -0.146

1493 -0.278

1494 -0.394

1495 -0.526

1496 -0.275

1497 -0.264

1498 -0.233

1499 -0.169

1500 -0.128

1501 -0.415

1502 -0.306

1503 0.011

1504 -0.013

1505 -0.378

1506 -0.226

1507 -0.428

1508 -0.192

1509 -0.312

1510 -0.157

1511 -0.162

1512 -0.188

1513 -0.135

1514 -0.418

1515 -0.258

1516 -0.381

1517 -0.134

1518 -0.180

1519 -0.166

1520 -0.035

1521 -0.384

1522 -0.302

1523 -0.541

1524 -0.371

1525 -0.183

1526 -0.289

1527 -0.224

1528 -0.247

1529 -0.432

1530 -0.291

1531 -0.467

1532 -0.343

1533 -0.586

1534 -0.183

1535 -0.417

1536 -0.350

1537 -0.257

1538 -0.451

1539 -0.398

1540 -0.497

1541 -0.406

1542 -0.584

1543 -0.448

1544 -0.317

1545 -0.312

1546 -0.289

1547 -0.114

1548 -0.459

1549 -0.335

1550 -0.009

1551 -0.074

1552 -0.047

1553 -0.207

1554 -0.285

1555 -0.116

1556 -0.141

1557 -0.419

1558 -0.174

1559 -0.465

1560 -0.287

1561 -0.169

1562 -0.231

1563 -0.270

1564 -0.347

1565 -0.116

1566 -0.202

1567 -0.278

1568 -0.445

1569 -0.488

1570 -0.465

1571 -0.434

1572 -0.674

1573 -0.324

1574 -0.493

1575 -0.273

1576 -0.623

1577 -0.483

1578 -0.521

1579 -0.551

1580 -0.473

1581 -0.436

1582 -0.382

1583 -0.345

1584 -0.280

1585 -0.565

1586 -0.409

1587 -0.580

1588 -0.530

1589 -0.534

1590 -0.354

1591 -0.377

1592 -0.407

1593 -0.337

1594 -0.591

1595 -0.459

1596 -0.436

1597 -0.475

1598 -0.152

1599 -0.134

1600 -0.381

1601 -1.169

1602 -0.403

1603 -0.414

1604 -0.472

1605 -0.393

1606 -0.564

1607 -0.529

1608 -0.822

1609 -0.789

1610 -0.617

1611 -0.681

1612 -0.670

1613 -0.364

1614 -0.733

1615 -0.428

1616 -0.698

1617 -0.479

1618 -0.485

1619 -0.524

1620 -0.706

1621 -0.671

1622 -0.714

1623 -0.662

1624 -0.387

1625 -0.566

1626 -0.671

1627 -0.665

1628 -0.759

1629 -0.654

1630 -0.379

1631 -0.466

1632 -0.330

1633 -0.377

1634 -0.521

1635 -0.222

1636 -0.265

1637 -0.252

1638 -0.396

1639 -0.382

1640 -0.400

1641 -1.152

1642 -1.067

1643 -1.092

1644 -0.649

1645 -0.588

1646 -0.632

1647 -0.554

1648 -0.368

1649 -0.572

1650 -0.215

1651 -0.317

1652 -0.529

1653 -0.268

1654 -0.343

1655 -0.400

1656 -0.372

1657 -0.332

1658 -0.359

1659 -0.182

1660 -0.260

1661 -0.258

1662 -0.433

1663 -0.433

1664 -0.353

1665 -0.440

1666 -0.837

1667 -0.857

1668 -0.816

1669 -0.779

1670 -0.871

1671 -0.463

1672 -0.434

1673 -0.631

1674 -0.663

1675 -0.870

1676 -0.523

1677 -0.670

1678 -0.794

1679 -0.768

1680 -0.701

1681 -0.380

1682 -0.518

1683 -0.364

1684 -0.369

1685 -0.688

1686 -0.178

1687 -0.481

1688 -0.351

1689 -0.229

1690 -0.254

1691 -0.221

1692 -0.545

1693 -0.263

1694 -0.316

1695 -0.955

1696 -0.816

1697 -0.687

1698 -1.054

1699 -1.005

1700 -0.630

1701 -0.818

1702 -0.510

1703 -0.377

1704 -0.420

1705 -0.527

1706 -0.328

1707 -0.257

1708 -0.465

1709 -0.493

1710 -0.288

1711 -0.344

1712 -0.345

1713 -0.242

1714 -0.390

1715 -0.305

1716 -0.390

1717 -0.309

1718 -0.270

1719 -0.194

1720 -0.110

1721 -0.427

1722 0.005

1723 -0.193

1724 -0.249

1725 -0.497

1726 -0.381

1727 -0.241

1728 -0.133

1729 -0.261

1730 -0.633

1731 -0.723

1732 -0.426

1733 -0.371

1734 -0.104

1735 -0.373

1736 -0.330

1737 -0.206

1738 -0.557

1739 -0.291

1740 -0.734

1741 -0.594

1742 -0.808

1743 -0.378

1744 -0.372

1745 -0.418

1746 -0.501

1747 -0.150

1748 -0.389

1749 -0.328

1750 -0.168

1751 -0.343

1752 -0.227

1753 -0.218

1754 -0.377

1755 -0.328

1756 -0.221

1757 -0.259

1758 -0.431

1759 -0.340

1760 -0.335

1761 -0.261

1762 -0.466

1763 -0.291

1764 -0.473

1765 -0.378

1766 -0.212

1767 -0.429

1768 -0.544

1769 -0.343

1770 -0.341

1771 -0.265

1772 -0.547

1773 -0.421

1774 -0.048

1775 -0.289

1776 -0.186

1777 -0.288

1778 -0.178

1779 -0.550

1780 -0.339

1781 -0.251

1782 -0.164

1783 -0.757

1784 -0.142

1785 -0.141

1786 -0.179

1787 -0.432

1788 -0.207

1789 -0.235

1790 -0.612

1791 -0.163

1792 -0.086

1793 -0.023

1794 -0.030

1795 -0.243

1796 -0.028

1797 -0.565

1798 -0.049

1799 -0.228

1800 -0.287

1801 -0.413

1802 -0.117

1803 0.020

1804 0.036

1805 -0.094

1806 -0.251

1807 -0.089

1808 -0.241

1809 -0.460

1810 -0.582

1811 -0.353

1812 -0.459

1813 -0.545

1814 -0.458

1815 -0.588

1816 -0.855

1817 -0.861

1818 -0.629

1819 -0.680

1820 -0.289

1821 -0.351

1822 -0.159

1823 -0.246

1824 -0.276

1825 -0.263

1826 -0.140

1827 -0.293

1828 -0.033

1829 -0.087

1830 -0.173

1831 -0.045

1832 -0.621

1833 -0.660

1834 -0.141

1835 -0.647

1836 -0.775

1837 -0.771

1838 -0.359

1839 -0.267

1840 -0.144

1841 -0.077

1842 -0.337

1843 -0.435

1844 -0.101

1845 -0.412

1846 0.106

1847 -0.079

1848 -0.346

1849 -0.393

1850 -0.261

1851 -0.165

1852 -0.100

1853 -0.174

1854 -0.138

1855 -0.418

1856 -0.250

1857 -0.538

1858 -0.126

1859 -0.195

1860 -0.231

1861 -0.029

1862 -0.555

1863 -0.303

1864 -0.407

1865 -0.256

1866 -0.437

1867 -0.413

1868 -0.119

1869 -0.321

1870 -0.213

1871 -0.352

1872 -0.163

1873 -0.183

1874 -0.372

1875 -0.247

1876 -0.487

1877 -0.192

1878 0.120

1879 -0.152

1880 -0.346

1881 -0.184

1882 -0.200

1883 -0.183

1884 -0.717

1885 -0.534

1886 -0.485

1887 -0.281

1888 -0.261

1889 -0.153

1890 -0.341

1891 -0.313

1892 -0.138

1893 -0.301

1894 -0.134

1895 -0.128

1896 -0.241

1897 -0.016

1898 0.065

1899 -0.574

1900 -0.218

1901 -0.049

1902 -0.287

1903 -0.142

1904 -0.205

1905 -0.308

1906 -0.034

1907 -0.412

1908 -0.048

1909 -0.214

1910 -0.147

1911 -0.194

1912 -0.631

1913 -0.161

1914 -0.294

1915 -0.074

1916 -0.277

1917 -0.297

1918 -0.460

1919 -0.013

1920 -0.272

1921 -0.114

1922 -0.036

1923 -0.305

1924 -0.141

1925 -0.258

1926 -0.115

1927 -0.198

1928 -0.018

1929 -0.161

1930 0.086

1931 0.104

1932 0.081

1933 -0.057

1934 0.007

1935 -0.037

1936 -0.019

1937 0.060

1938 0.163

1939 -0.075

1940 0.113

1941 -0.200

1942 0.128

1943 0.053

1944 -0.080

1945 0.059

1946 -0.016

1947 -0.188

1948 -0.038

1949 -0.107

1950 -0.269

1951 -0.100

1952 -0.118

1953 0.161

1954 -0.235

1955 -0.127

1956 -0.308

1957 -0.194

1958 -0.308

1959 -0.224

1960 0.076

1961 -0.104

1962 -0.289

1963 -0.173

1964 -0.479

1965 -0.474

1966 -0.171

1967 -0.200

1968 -0.599

1969 -0.355

1970 -0.353

1971 -0.328

1972 -0.563

1973 -0.262

1974 -0.336

1975 -0.507

1976 -0.558

1977 -0.363

1978 -0.698

1979 -0.289

1980 -0.612

1981 -0.195

1982 -0.522

1983 -0.234

1984 -0.335

1985 -0.423

1986 -0.430

1987 -0.424

1988 -0.161

1989 -0.286

1990 -0.275

1991 -0.169

1992 -0.175

1993 -0.341

1994 -0.320

 

Attachment Converted: "c:eudoraattachBriffa et al.ps"

 

Dr Timothy J Osborn | phone: +44 1603 592089

Senior Research Associate | fax: +44 1603 507784

Climatic Research Unit | e-mail: t.osborn@xxxxxxxxx.xxx

School of Environmental Sciences | web-site:

University of East Anglia __________| http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/

Norwich NR4 7TJ | sunclock:

UK | http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm