National Climate Assessment: A crisis of epistemic overconfidence
I’ve just completed rereading Vol I of the NCA4. There is so much here of concern
that it is difficult to know where to start. I have been very critical of the IPCC
in the past (but I will certainly admit that the AR5 was a substantial improvement
over the AR4). While the NCA4 shares some common problems with the IPCC AR5, the
NCA4 makes the IPCC AR5 look like a relative paragon of rationality. by Judith Curry
Alarmist Claim Fact Checks
Below are a series of rebuttals of the most common climate alarmists’ claims such
as those made in the recently released Fourth National Climate Assessment Report.
The authors of these rebuttals are all recognized experts in the relevant scientific
fields. The rebuttals demonstrate the falsity of EPA’s claims merely by citing the
most credible empirical data on the topic. https://alarmistclaimresearch.wordpress.com/
The best case that a leading climate researchers was able to make is that we know
the warming (that statistically stopped in 1995, and slightly reversed since 2005)
was caused by man’s CO2 because we cannot figure out anything else!
Impartial American Physics Society Climate Discussion
Fact: Minoan, Egyptian, Roman and Medieval times were probably warmer than recently.
Evidence: Grootes, P.M., Stuiver, M., White, J.W.C., Johnsen, S.J., Jouzel J., Comparison
of oxygen isotope records from the GISP and GRIP Greenland ice cores. Nature 366,1993,
pp. 552-554. Graphed at: http://www.sustainableoregon.com/temphist.html
Fact: A careful study of climate history showed that there is a strong likelihood
that the major portion of temperature change in the 20th century was due to natural
Evidence: the Holocene records up to 8000 years before present, from several ice
cores were examined.
. . . The average standard deviation of temperature was 0.98 ± 0.27 °C. This suggests
that while some portion of the temperature change observed in the 20th century was
probably caused by greenhouse gases, there is a strong likelihood that the major
portion was due to natural variations.
More Evidence: “...most of the temperature trends since at least 1881 can be explained
in terms of solar variability, with atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations providing
at most a minor contribution. Soon, Connolly, and Connolly
Fact: Man’s CO2 has never been proven to cause dangerous warming.
Oregon recently created the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute to be headed
by Philip W. Mote, the Washington state climatologist, who will become a professor
in the College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences at Oregon State University, where
the institute will be located. Unfortunately, Mr. Mote has been implicated in fudging
scientific datawhich falsely created the impression of dramatic melting of Northwest
Glaciers, while long term data shows little change.
Oregon's goal of reducing CO2 emissions by 40% in just 12 years will cause major
disruptions if implemented the way Oregon's Global Warming Commission advises. They
ignore the one move that would actually lower our cost of energy and meet the CO2
goal at the same time: nuclear.
Instead they want to price energy so high that you are forced to use 40% less heat
in the winter and drive 40% less.